We turn our attention to Tuesday night’s UEFA Champions League semi final second leg at the Emirates Stadium, where Arsenal host Atlético Madrid. With the tie finely balanced, the big question is whether Mikel Arteta can guide Arsenal to their first final since 2006, or if Diego Simeone’s side will once again defy expectations.
Key Insights and Stats:
According to the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal are favourites, with a 56.0% chance of winning in normal time. The Gunners have been in excellent form in Europe, losing just two of their last 23 Champions League matches.
Last week’s first leg in Madrid ended 1 1 in a tense affair dominated by penalty drama. Viktor Gyökeres and Julián Álvarez both converted from the spot, while Arsenal were frustrated after a VAR review overturned a penalty decision involving Eberechi Eze.
Recent history favours the team playing the second leg at home when the first leg is drawn. Since the away goals rule was scrapped, all three such semi finals have been won by the home side in the return leg. Examples include Manchester City in 2023, Real Madrid in 2024, and Inter last season.
Arsenal also tend to finish the job in these situations. When they have avoided defeat away in the first leg of a Champions League knockout tie, they have progressed 8 times out of 10. Their only failures came against Benfica in 1991 92 and Chelsea in 2003 04.
Their record against Spanish opposition is particularly strong. Arsenal are unbeaten in their last eight Champions League matches against La Liga teams, winning seven of them. Only Chelsea have managed a longer unbeaten run against Spanish sides in the competition.
Defensively, Arteta’s team has been outstanding. They concede an average of just 0.65 goals per game in the Champions League under his management, the best ratio among coaches with at least 20 matches in the competition.
Atlético Madrid’s Challenge:
Despite Arsenal’s strong numbers, Atlético Madrid remain a dangerous opponent. However, their recent away form in England is poor, with six defeats in their last seven visits to Premier League clubs in the Champions League. Notably, they were beaten 4 0 at the Emirates earlier this season.
Still, Simeone’s teams are known for resilience. He has already taken Atlético to two Champions League finals and is aiming for a third, a feat only a few managers have achieved multiple times with the same club.
Julián Álvarez will be central to Atlético’s hopes. He averages a goal involvement every 80 minutes in the competition, a rate bettered only by Erling Haaland among players with 20 plus contributions. He also leads this season’s tournament in high intensity pressing, highlighting his all around impact.
There are some fitness concerns for Atlético, with Pablo Barrios, José María Giménez, and Nico González uncertain to feature.
Arsenal’s Key Players:
Arsenal may not have a forward matching Álvarez’s output, but their strength lies in balance.
David Raya has saved more goals than any goalkeeper in the competition since last season, outperforming expected goals significantly.
Declan Rice was dominant in the first leg, leading all players in line breaking passes and progressive carries.
Viktor Gyökeres could make history by becoming only the third player from an English club to score in both legs of a Champions League semi final.
Squad wise, Arsenal are relatively stable. Mikel Merino and Jurriën Timber are definite absentees, while Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard may still play despite doubts.
Head to Head Context
This is the first time the two sides have met in the Champions League. Arsenal won 4 0 at home in the league phase earlier this season before last week’s 1 1 draw in Madrid.
Their only previous knockout clash came in the 2018 Europa League semi finals, where Atlético advanced after a 1 0 home win following a draw in London. They went on to win the final that year.
Prediction:
Based on simulations, Arsenal win this match in 56.0% of scenarios. A draw occurs 23.7% of the time, meaning the Gunners have nearly an 80% chance of at least forcing extra time. Atlético Madrid’s chances of winning outright in normal time stand at 20.2%.
Expected Lineups:
Arsenal
Raya, White, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapié, Zubimendi, Rice, Eze, Saka, Martinelli, Gyökeres
Manager Mikel Arteta
Atlético Madrid
Oblak, Molina, Pubill, Le Normand, Ruggeri, Koke, Cardoso, Almada, Baena, Lookman, Griezmann
Manager Diego Simeone
Overall, while Atlético Madrid will fight until the final whistle, the numbers and recent trends point towards Arsenal having the edge to progress to the final.
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