EPL Analysis: Comparing EPL Clubs’ Next Five Games

Before the first ball of the 2025-26 Premier League season was kicked, Opta Analyst studied every team’s schedule to see who might start fast and who might be under pressure early. Every team eventually plays each other twice, but the order of games matters. A tough run can crush momentum, while an easier start can help a team gather confidence.

That early period is now behind us. Each club has played five matches, and patterns are beginning to emerge. Some sides have defied expectations, while others have struggled despite having supposedly favourable fixtures. The question now is how the next five games compare.

The Opening Five Games: Who Met Expectations and Who Did Not

Manchester United were handed the most difficult opening run. Their first five opponents had an average Opta Power Ranking of 94.7. With Arsenal, Manchester City and Chelsea included, the challenge was obvious. They came away with seven points, losing to both Arsenal and City but also defeating Chelsea. Some might argue the Chelsea victory deserves a footnote, yet most observers expected fewer points from this stretch. For new manager Ruben Amorim, things could have gone far worse.

Bournemouth deserve high praise. Andoni Iraola’s team had the second-toughest schedule with an average opponent rating of 94.0. Even so, they collected ten points from five games, losing only once, and are sitting fourth. This is their joint-best start in the Premier League, matching the ten points they managed in 2018–19. Arsenal also faced opponents averaging 94.0 and likewise earned ten points, edging Tottenham and Bournemouth on goal difference.

Overall, the clubs with the toughest starts have managed reasonably well. Each of the seven teams with the hardest opening five fixtures has at least seven points. Liverpool lead the table with a maximum of 15 points even though their run was among the more difficult. Manchester City, with seven points, may feel underwhelmed, but that total looks different when compared to the same tally collected by newly promoted Leeds or Everton. Pep Guardiola’s men had to play United, Tottenham and Arsenal, and that was never going to be straightforward.

Aston Villa, by contrast, had the easiest schedule on paper. Their first five opponents carried an average rating of 91.8. Yet Villa stumbled badly. A goalless draw against Newcastle was affected by Ezri Konsa’s red card, and they lost 3-0 at home to Crystal Palace. They did not score a goal until their fifth match, a 1-1 draw away to Sunderland, where they failed to protect a lead against ten men. Villa are 18th in the table, winless, with only three points.

Chelsea, Palace, Sunderland and West Ham all began with schedules averaging 91.9. Palace have impressed, collecting nine points to sit in fifth. Chelsea and Sunderland have both taken eight points, a strong return for the newly promoted Black Cats who have lost only once. Sunderland’s draw with Palace and their 1-1 result against Villa were particularly encouraging, the latter achieved despite playing most of the game with ten men.

West Ham, however, have endured a miserable start. The only bright moment was a 3–0 win away at Nottingham Forest. Their other four games all ended in heavy defeats, three of them by margins of three goals or more. Graham Potter is already under significant pressure.

Looking Ahead: The Next Five Matches

West Ham’s upcoming schedule does little to ease concerns. Their opponents over the next five games average a rating of 91.5, not the most difficult but certainly not favourable. They must travel to Everton, Arsenal and Leeds, while hosting Newcastle and Brentford.

Villa face more trouble. After disappointing in the supposedly easier run, they must now play Fulham and Burnley at home before facing Tottenham away, Manchester City at home and Liverpool away. Their opponents over this stretch carry an average rating of 92.5, the third-toughest in the league. For Villa, the matches against Fulham and Burnley already look like must-wins.

Manchester United might finally get some relief. After a brutal start, their next sequence looks mixed. They face Brentford away, Sunderland at home, Brighton at home and Nottingham Forest away, along with a trip to Anfield after the international break. The average rating of their opponents is 90.8, a noticeable drop compared to their opening run. By the time they face Forest, it will be a year since Amorim’s appointment. If United have not shown progress by then, serious questions will arise.

Wolves desperately need a turnaround after losing all of their first five games. Their next five could offer hope. With Sunderland and Burnley among their opponents, their upcoming fixtures average just 88.2, the lowest in the league. Brighton and Fulham are also in that run, matches they will see as winnable. Coach Vítor Pereira, who only recently signed a new deal, cannot afford to waste this chance.

Leeds are next in line for a favourable run. They will host Bournemouth and Tottenham, then face Burnley away, West Ham at home and Brighton away.

Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham also benefit from relatively kind runs. Arsenal still face a tricky trip to Newcastle and Tottenham will meet Chelsea at home, but the other matches look manageable. City, in particular, have reason for optimism. Their next five are Burnley at home, Brentford away, Everton at home, Villa away and Bournemouth at home. Anything less than near-maximum points would be a disappointment.

Liverpool again face a challenging stretch, just as they did at the start. They travel to unbeaten Crystal Palace and then to Chelsea before hosting Manchester United at Anfield. Yet their perfect record in the opening five shows they are more than capable of handling demanding schedules.

As the 2025–26 season moves deeper, storylines will continue to evolve. Some will collapse under tougher tests, while others will rise from poor starts thanks to more forgiving runs. Fixture lists may not decide everything, but they certainly shape the journey.